Garba, M. K., Akanni, S. B. , Yahya, W. B., Kareem, K. Y. and Afolayan, R. B

Keywords: Cereals Production; Order of Integration; Optimal Lag Order; Toda-Yamamoto Causality; Nigeria

Abstract 

This study aimed to examine the direction of causality among Cereals Production (CP), Land used for Cereals Production (LP) and Cereal Yields (CY) in Nigeria for a period of 50 years (1966 to 2016) using techniques of Toda-Yamamoto. The maximum order of integration and optimal lag order of the series confirmed that VAR(2+1) model best fitted the data. Results from the estimated model revealed that two year past values t-2 (2014 and 2015) of CP is the major determinant of CP series in current time period t (2016) while one year past value t-1 (2015) of CY and two year past values t-2 (2014 and 2015) of CP and LP are major determinants of CY series in current time period t (2016).The results of Toda-Yamamoto causality examination showed that CY is Grangercaused by both CP and LP.  Based on the sequence of analyses carried out in this study, it was concluded that cereals yields in Nigeria can be predicted by both cereal production and the size of farmland used for planting cereal crops. The study then recommended that adequate plots of land be allocated to farmers interested in cereals production in order to improve yields of cereals and ensure food security in the country.