Modelling of Post-COVID-19 Food Production Index in Nigeria using Box-Jenkins Methodology

Mohammed Kabir Garba, Saheed Busayo Akanni, Kola Yusuff Kareem, Ahmed Ayobami Yusuf, Saheed Olalekan Jabaru, John Seyi Abolarin, Femi Emmanuel Amoyedo and Samuel Oluwaseun Ekundayoliyu

Keywords:Food Production Index; Correlogram; Selection Criteria; ARIMA; COVID-19; Nigeria


Before the COVID-19 pandemic, global food security has been known to be a major threat for developed and
developing countries of the world. However, during the COVID-19 pandemic, global food security was expected to
be at a very high risk due to lockdown across the globe. Consequently, the developing countries, most especially,
were expected to experience food shortage challenges. One important way to measure the amount of food production
of any country in the world is through the use of a macroeconomic variable known as Food Production Index (FPI).
Therefore, this study seeks to examine the post-COVID-19 behavior of the Nigeria’s FPI using the Box-Jenkins
methodology for modeling univariate time series. A low-frequency time series datasets over 56 years spanning from
1961 to 2016 on Nigerian FPI was extracted from World Bank repository. Pre-tests results from the unit root analyses,
correlogram and selection criteria techniques showed that the FPI is a differenced stationary series of order one
{I(1)}and that ARIMA (2, 1, 2) model best fitted the series. Besides, diagnostic checking of the fitted model confirmed
that the error was white noise and forecast of 8 years (2017 to 2024) was made. Findings from the study revealed
that the future values of the FPI are erratic and expected to fluctuate (i.e., rise and fall) within the predicted periods.
Conclusively, the fourteen years out sample forecast of FPI for the periods 2017 to 2030 indicates that the gains of
FPI in recent years is currently being affected by the current COVID-19 pandemic. The study recommends that
concerted efforts to achieve optimal FPI must be focused on the improvement of inter-regional trade which will result
in shorter food chains, and thereby creating more market for farmers and enhancing accessibility to both inputs and